DEFENCE & SECURITY_MEY tische Effekte), Redundanzen, Immunisierung, Notfallvorkehrungen, die sogenannte „Resilience“. Und dennoch muss man sich nicht nur damit befassen, möglichen Schaden abzuwenden bzw. präventiv zu verhindern, sondern gleichzeitig auf Schadensbegrenzungsmaßnahmen dringen, da sich nicht aller Schaden im Vorfeld abwenden lässt – siehe hierzu auch den Bericht des „European Security Research and Innovation Forum“ (ESRIF). Die Rolle von Technologie darf insgesamt weder über-, noch unterschätzt werden. Jede Technologie ist nur so wichtig wie die ensured – and the remainder is ‘outsourced’. Security issues seem to take a back seat to saving costs. Ignoring all the experts’ warnings we are systematically increasing our dependency on modern IT systems without taking account of our ever-increasing vulnerability. But even military plans – to say nothing of civilian ones – obviously assume that the opponent is either incompetent or cooperative or both. What if this assumption turns out to be wrong? All traditional measures to reduce vulnerabilities are ‘out of fashion’ now: hardening (e. g. against jamming and electro-magnetic effects), redundancies, immunisation, emergency precautions, the socalled ‘resilience’. And still one not only has to avert possible damages or prevent them from happening but must also urge the necessity of damage limitation measures, as all damages cannot be avoided – see also the report of the ‘European Security Research and Innovation Forum’ (ESRIF). On the whole, the role of technology should neither be over- nor underestimated. Any technology is only as important as the purpose it serves. Even if it were possible to generate a completely transparent situation profile with the help of modern sensor systems, one must always be prepared for surprises – as any chess player knows! So we need systems that can do more than just generate images: sensor and data fusion, intelligent pre-evaluation to manage the ever-growing flood of information, pattern recognition and behaviour prediction models, authentication methods to ensure that you are really dealing with the person you want to deal with, decision support systems and simulations that help you make the right decisions under pressure, systems that relieve you of routine and administration work and give you more time for missionspecific tasks. Simultaneously, we need to find the right combination of comparatively low-cost systems for everyday tasks and more robust and expensive systems that will still work reliably when an opponent has state-of-the-art means to take advantage of our weaknesses. Assuming that the means that are or will become available will also be used by criminal and enemy forces, what technological developments can we expect in the security sector? DEVELOPMENTS IN SECURITY TECHNOLOGY – EXAMPLES Surveillance of major facilities or areas like state borders or sea areas, industrial plants where hazardous goods or substances are made, energy or water supply facilities, traffic routes ungeachtet aller Warnungen von Experten vergrößern wir unsere Abhängigkeiten von modernen informationstechnologischen Systemen ohne der zunehmendenVerwundbarkeit Rechnung zu tragen.Aber selbst militärische Planungen – von zivilen ganz zu schweigen – gehen offenkundig davon aus, dass der Gegner entweder inkompetent oder kooperativ oder beides ist. Was, wenn sich diese Annahme als falsch herausstellen sollte? Alle klassischen Maßnahmen zur Verminderung von Verwundbarkeiten sind „aus der Mode“ gekommen: Härtung (beispielsweise gegen Jamming und elektromagne- © AFP/Getty Images © Getty Images 10 griephan global security 2/2010
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